Can you trust Genta??

The big question for everyone to answer is can I go back down this path with genta again? For those that are new to the security there are many of us that have been burned in the past by inconsistent results and frequent mis management of clinical trials. If you aren't familiar genta has been down the path of "the next blockbuster drug" before. If you were involved in the most recent disappointment, the agenda trial for melanoma, than you know all to well what genta can do to you. If you are really familiar with genta than you know that agenda isn't the first time that they have been squashed by the fda for melanoma treatment. There was an 2004 trial that ended much the same. As you look back through the most recent trial and read the notes you can and will find many inconsistencies from management hypothesis of results as compared to actually efficacy at the end of the trial. Make no mistake that this is a publicly traded company that is always going to skew on the side of success. For all the posturing for the agenda trial it was a disaster.

 Genta has been given fda "fast track" designation for tesetaxel a drug to combat gastric cancer.  Fast track can mean a combination of things.  That the drug in question offers significant efficacy that others don't, an un met need for a serious illness, or providing the patient with life function or expectancy that isn't currently met.  In this case this drug meets the criteria of all the things listed above.  My fear however is that so did Genasense  their melanoma drug.  There hasn't been a significant skin cancer drug to hit the market in 40 years.  Skin cancer is one of the number one killers in the world.  Whereas I do agree that the fda is a bloated self loathing governmental branch that thinks way to much of themselves they are intrinsically in the business of improving lives.  In this case Genasense just didn't make its case, twice.  Will this gastric treatment go down the same path.  Only time will tell. As an investor it is difficult to continue to believe in a company that just can't get it done.  Forget what your prejudice is as to why, the results are what they are and genta has failed every time.  This company reminds me of Cell Theraputics or CTIC.  They have pitched their drug pixatrone in everyway imaginable and still have failed every time.

 If you read any of my other blogs I am the consumate bull.  I really don't like writing about stuff that I am not totally sold on.  In this case I did make an acception.  I was an investor with geta pre-split with the agenda trial for Genasense.  My thoughts were as most.  If they can actually bring this melanoma drug to the market the potential is endless.  I ignored the original trial results and banked on possibilities and not science.  That being said I sold soon after the spilt.  Followers of the security will know that I kick myself constantly for that because it went from .40 to a 1.15.  Results or not I missed the trade.  Well this time I will not miss the excitement around this company.  It will not be a buy and hold but a patterned trade until it settles in a specific price range.  Upon the news I was able to get in at .068 and sold at .164.  Almost the bottom and almost the top.  The following down the money mangers played a wonderful game and yanked it to .20 at the open, took it back to .128, built a base and the settled in the .15 range.  Within that time I committed back at .134 and sold at .168.  If you have level 2 trading capability(if you are trading otc stocks you should) there was a lot of support in the high .12 range and quite a bit of accumulation in the .15 area.  I think on speculation this can go to the .35 to .45 range but there will be many opportunities in between for great day trades. Yea you may say he funky the stock went to 1.15 for the agenda trial.  I don't think you will see that again.  Too many got burned and I don't think it goes back there.

All of my apprehension doesn't stand a chance against a otc stock with fast track designation for a drug. Yea they have burned me in the past but these are the big opportunities that are few and far between.  You have to take the chance and invest in the "big bang".  I am a bull and always be one.  I believe it hitting the big one.  I have a few times and it just feels great.  Its like sucking at golf.  You can tee off 15 time and just slice and shank the ball everywhere.  The one you really dig into, hit the sweet spot, and drive it 300 yards feels almost religious.  I have bought and sold several times holding a core position at each spot.  This I will continue to do.  Happy stock hunting!!